The Future of Work: The Gig Economy is Here to Stay.

Spring Colors in a Floodplain Forest

The Gig economy is the term on the tip of the tongues of commentators and analysts these days. It’s a very broad term that describes both the increasing tendency of employers to hire independent contractors and short term workers rather than add new full time employees, and their accompanying taxes and benefits, to their workforce. It also describes a range of individuals who, by choice or necessity, build an income around work that is self-directed and without both the benefits and the downsides of a traditional job. A gig job may be a sole source of  income or performed in addition to a traditional job that doesn’t generate the income necessary to either the needs or the financial aspirations of the person involved.

The Gig Economy may seem to be a new phenomenon to many, but to folks who live in the shadow of Rattlesnake Ridge it’s been a way of life for a long time. When my friend Micky Lewis, whom you’ve met in this column before, delivers wood to my home in the middle of the winter, between snow plowing gigs, he’s supplementing work as a contractor that comes and goes with the vagaries of the economy and the real estate market among other variables. Now this is the life that Micky has chosen, but for many such work comes as a necessity. The trade off that many of us made to live here is that well paying jobs tend to be less available here.

So now the phenomenon has spread throughout the economy and we have a name for it, possibly named from the well known phrase “I’ve got a side gig doing . . .you finish the sentence”.  

The Gig Economy is not well defined. In fact, to date, no formal definition has been established even for the terms “Gig Economy” or “Gig Worker”. Furthermore, statistical information that really measures the number of people engaged in the gig economy is nowhere near the level of sophistication as those who are employed in the full time labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has stubbornly clung to measuring three things: “Farm employment, non-farm employment and employers, there just aren’t that many gradations for job categories beyond that except by industry” according to the most comprehensive research on gig jobs I have found at Nation1099.com (see below).  

There are some understandable reasons for this. After all we are trying to measure not only those who make their entire living putting together gigs, both online and offline, as well as the people who have a job but supplement it with gig jobs; and those who label themselves consultants. In an effort to attempt to get a handle on this part of our economy the GAO issued a report in 2014 and could not decide whether the portion of workers that BLS defined as “Contingent Workers” represented 5% or 40% of the workforce.  It is estimated that as much as 90% of the jobs added since 2015, encompassing all three of these, have been gig jobs. 47% of Millenials, who make up the largest portion of the workforce, according to surveys are engaged in some level of freelance work.

A few other instructive bits of data are worth considering:

1. According to Forbes Magazine, since 2000, 1099s have gone up 22%, while the traditional W-2 forms have stagnated.
2. Some researchers project that half of the working U.S. population will move into the gig economy within the next five years.

Among the trends nationally that will have the greatest impact on the number of people in the Gig economy is the alignment of small business growth and Gig Economy growth. These days when most people think of the Gig Economy they think of big companies like Uber, Lyft, AirBNB, etc. but one of the fastest growing area of Gig Job growth is new and expanding small businesses who find it easier and more affordable to hire freelance workers than to add individuals to their payroll. This is partly due to costs but it is also caused by a new trend in business with jobs being broken down into component parts with the work divided between technological solutions (robots, software, etc.) and freelance workers for specific tasks that cannot yet be solved employing technological solutions.   

All of the trend lines indicate that the Gig Economy is here to stay. It will bring massive change, massive opportunity and massive disruption to the economy and our lives, making it both exciting and dangerous, particularly when combined with another trend in business, exchanging technology for labor. Most economists, futurists and other prognosticators predict that by 2020 almost half of the entire labor force in the US will be employed within the Gig Economy. That’s the same year, by the way that many say we will begin to see massive disruption in the largest source of individual employment, drivers as driverless trucks and automobiles begin the process of what very well may become a driverless society by 2050.

Now, the good news and the bad news. First, most people who are employed in some way in the gig economy indicate a high degree of satisfaction. Varying polls show a satisfaction rate of as much as 75%. They enjoy the flexibility and the freedom that it provides for them.

The bad news is that almost all of the people employed in the Gig Economy are within the middle class strata of society. Very few of the working class and poor, whom I have referred to as the Precariat, are currently engaged in this sector of the economy. Where there is massive income disparity between the wealthy and everyone else already, this threatens to make the problem even worse.

Furthermore most jobs within the Gig Economy have no benefits and therefore fall outside of the social safety net that we have constructed since the Great Depression.

Meanwhile, Trump Tweets, the Republicans hide and the Democrats are gleefully looking to 2018 without a clue of what they will do - other than to hold impeachment hearings -  if they take over the control of the House and/or the Senate. Granted, the Democrats have no power within the government but they could be setting an example by telling us what they would do if they did. It may be that their relationship with labor - which in fairness was largely responsible for building the middle class in this country - has paralyzed them. Labor has already been through a dramatic decline in America and they are fighting to maintain their clout. The Gig economy represents an existential crisis for them.  Unless the labor movement comes up with some new approaches to organizing, their days are numbered.

Here’s the problem in a nutshell, while we have moved to Workforce 2.0 in the global economy our governance is still stuck in Democracy 1.0 and Capitalism 1.0 and that is a real and growing problem. If I were advising an insurgent Republican candidate or an Independent Candidate for President I’d tell him or her to adopt a radical centrist agenda that spoke to the greatest threats to American economic stability and democracy. Go BIG or Go Home as they say.  It would take a whole lot of guts and it would be a high risk strategy. It might also be the first real step toward righting the ship of state and saving both capitalism and democracy.

Links:

http://nation1099.com/gig-economy-data-freelancer-study

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregoryferenstein/2015/12/12/the-gig-economy-appears-to-be-growing-heres-why/

https://smallbiztrends.com/2016/07/20-surprising-stats-freelance-economy.html

About Wayne D. King: Wayne King is an author, artist, activist and recovering politician. A three term State Senator, he was the 1994 Democratic nominee for Governor and most recently the CEO of MOP Environmental Solutions Inc., a public company in the environmental cleanup space.  His art is exhibited nationally in galleries and he has published three books of his images. His most recent novel "Sacred Trust" a vicarious, high voltage adventure to stop a private powerline, has been published on Amazon.com http://bit.ly/STPaper. He lives in Rumney at the base of Rattlesnake Ridge and proudly flies both the American and Iroquois Flags. His website is: http://bit.ly/WayneDKing

The Value of Native American Indian Investment in America

In the last few months I have been thinking a lot about the values and obligations that we Americans share with one another.

In December I wrote a column that asked the question of whether GDP (also called GNP or Gross National Product) was the best way to measure American success and happiness. (InDepthNH.org - http://bit.ly/2I38p1q );

In February, I wrote a column titled "Restoring the American Voice" (InDepthNH.org http://bit.ly/2Kfuvyn) advocating the need for us all to moderate our differences by remembering and respecting those values that we all share. . . Singing the American Song together as we find our way through the sea of changes ahead.

In my March 3, 2018 column "A National American Social Dividend and a New American Paradigm" (InDepthNH.org http://bit.ly/2r1HYRB ) I suggested that we recognize an American Social Dividend. Essentially making the case that beyond the inheritance of private wealth that we have long recognized in America, that there should be a recognition of an inheritance of public wealth. A recognition of those contributions made over the centuries to the nation's wealth by those who are not in the 1%., including both the collective personal investments made (willingly or unwillingly) and the collective investments created by laws and institutions that have provided the legal and economic framework for a successful economy and a robust democracy. Those investments have played a role in the long term success of the American economy and our way of life that is every bit as important as the Plutocrat, who is able to pass along to his or her children the wealth generated during their lifetime. In fact, it could be argued that, without the robust institutions of Democracy, Capitalism - which is more of an "Operating System" than it is an ideology - could not have produced the rewards it has produced for those Plutocrats.

Now don't get me wrong. . . I am a "Capitalist" and there is nothing , in my opinion wrong with being wealthy; frankly, I wish I were. The sooner we stop denigrating people for being wealthy, or poor, the faster we will rediscover our American Voice. But the myth of the "self-made man" is just that, a myth. Behind every self-made man is an education financed by taxpayers, or a patent protected by a law and perhaps financed through a government research grant; a government infrastructure and a physical infrastructure, paid for by taxpayers at every level; or, a government guaranteed loan for a business . . . do I need to go on?

In the Column I cite just some of the ways in which, over more than two centuries, we have padded the GNP at the expense of one group or another concluding, finally that "in some way or another we are all aggrieved, we are all due reparations; we are mutually responsible for our successes and our failures and mutually entitled to an American Social Dividend paid for with the blood, sweat and tears of every American. . ."

Naturally in thinking about all this I began to wonder if there were not a way to show that both the political and economic success of our nation is grounded in the contributions and sacrifices of all Americans, even those who have been marginalized historically.

So I began to construct a series of questions that I wanted to try answering to help me better explain all this and to defend the proposition.

Our Time Comes

Here is the first question I asked myself (hey give me a break I'm Iroquois!) How does the value of the land taken from Native American people in the conquest of the US relate to GNP today?

As far as I know, no one has done extensive academic research on this topic and for good reason. It would be almost impossible - without Big Data and a powerful computer - to figure out, given differing land values and differing time tables, to say nothing of the fact that knowing when a land transaction was actually voluntary (not very often). On the other hand there is enough data out there to do a "back of the envelope" calculation generally, so here goes:

Using very rough estimates and not including the land taken from Native American people prior to 1776 and also not including improvements on the land such as the towns established in Georgia and the Carolinas by tribes like the Cherokee. It is generally understood that since 1776 Native Americans have been moved from lands totaling 1.5 Billion acres to a small set of reservations dotted around the country. If you simply use the general value of an acre of land prior to the Gold Rush ($1.25) the 1.5 Billion acres had a rough value back then of 1.9 Billion dollars. Using another rough calculation, real dollar values, we can estimate that $1.00 in the early 1800s is roughly (very roughly as we have no data related to inflation before 1913) equivalent to about $49.00 today. Since we know that no land in California today sells for $49.00 per acre (Average 2012 California farm real estate values set an all-time record - $7200 per acre) we can be sure that this is a conservative number, the value of the theft of native lands is, at a minimum $87 Billion dollars. If we use the $7,200/acre value, the value - still conservative - is 10.1 Trillion dollars. A glance at an estimate of the total value of US land is $14.48 Trillion dollars. The numbers show a surprising correlation. While about 80% of the lands of America were taken from native people after 1776, the value of that land today represents 70% of the total value of "unimproved" real estate (land only) in the US.

OK but the way we measure the wealth of our nation is not by real estate value, its by GDP. So how do we figure out what portion of the nation's wealth has been generated from lands taken from Native American people?

Well, let's try this: 18% of GDP is generated by real estate activity. 70% of 18% is 12.6%. GDP in 2016 was 18.57 Trillion. 12.6% of 18.57T is 2.32 Trillion dollars or 12.5% of 2016 US GDP generated from the 1.5 Billion acres of land taken from Native Americans since 1776.

While this is a seat of the pants calculation - I suspect the actual numbers would be higher - and certainly subject to legitimate criticism as there are many variables in the cost and value of land across the USA, the point made is the same. A large portion of national wealth has grown from the lands that we expropriated from Native American Indians.

Native people have not sought reparations. The loss of culture and marginalization for them has been far more important and can never be remunerated. It would be a step in the right direction to at least recognize that a substantial portion of our bounty today can be attributed to the land their ancestors called home.

About Wayne D. King: Wayne King is an author, artist, activist and recovering politician. A three term State Senator, he was the 1994 Democratic nominee for Governor and most recently the CEO of MOP Environmental Solutions Inc., a public company in the environmental cleanup space.  His art is exhibited nationally in galleries and he has published three books of his images. His most recent novel "Sacred Trust" a vicarious, high voltage adventure to stop a private powerline, has been published on Amazon.com http://bit.ly/STPaper. He lives in Rumney at the base of Rattlesnake Ridge and proudly flies both the American and Iroquois Flags. His website is: http://bit.ly/WayneDKing

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If you know of better sources for the information on the back of my "envelope" I'd love to find out about them so that I can update this information. If you disagree with my points, I'd like to hear you, especially if you have a well thought out response and not just a snarky or snide remark. Lets have an honest dialog and we'll all benefit from it. wdk

Preamble - Critical Thinking and the Paradox of History

Lessons from a Lifelong Student (and sometimes Teacher) of History
Wayne D. King

"Skepticism is the chastity of the intellect, and it is shameful to surrender it too soon or to the first comer: there is nobility in preserving it coolly and proudly through long youth, until at last, in the ripeness of instinct and discretion, it can be safely exchanged for fidelity and happiness."
George Santayana
US (Spanish-born) philosopher (1863 - 1952)

History and politics must be approached with a large dose of skepticism whether from the left or the right because, after all, history is generally written by the "winners" whether their cause was just or not. While I may have coined, or simply adopted, the phrase "The Paradox of History" neither the phrase itself, nor the thought, is unique or original.

Economist John Maynard Keynes coined the phrase the “Paradox of Thrift” to describe that point in a recession when the public is inclined to save as much as possible and spend as little as possible, while at the same time massive spending is the only way to alleviate the economic peril that the country faces. The Paradox of history is simply that history is written by the “winners” who have a vested interest in the narrative, while at the same time, history's greatest benefit to us is what might be learned from an unbiased narrative that provides us an opportunity to see both the good and bad in its events, personas and results. Stated more eloquently by Gordon Craig, “the duty of the historian is to restore to the past the options it once had.”

So, therefore, a good teacher's first responsibility to his or her students is to convince them that they should believe as little as possible of what he or she is about to tell them. Let's call that the "educators corollary" to the Paradox of History.

Having admitted to complete and utter fallibility, a good teacher must then impart his/her knowledge assertively, as if no other source was closer to the oracle of knowledge and truth.

A worthy teacher, then, seeks not to serve answers or truths but to urge students toward the development of critical thinking skills and a healthy skepticism, from which they can derive their own narrative.

This does not in any way alleviate the burden upon you, the student. Quite the contrary in fact - it imposes a larger responsibility because you must find a way to demonstrate a modicum of deference to my years of experience and knowledge while, at the same time, double checking the veracity of everything you learn from me.

One of the first things that you will learn is that a good critical thinker does not mistake opinion or "common sense" for fact. Opinion, after all is just that; one person’s view of something. Common sense, that stalwart beacon of logic and wisdom with which your elders have urged you to imbue your thoughts and behavior, is an even more devilish force because it is empowered by the vast influence of majority thought.

Stephen Hawking, in his extraordinary "Science in the New Millennium" speech, said “. . . common sense is just another name for the prejudices that we have been brought up with.”

Facts, on the other hand, as Mark Twain said, are "stubborn things" they may stand by themselves or they may be turned into thought, but without them thought has no basis in reality; and, ultimately, no power.

So, as we begin this adventure, make it your goal to keep both your eyes and your mind wide open. Take joy in the moments in which your notion of the world is turned upside down because that is the surest sign that something useful is happening to you.

The Best Leader

Snow River

A leader is best
When people barely know
That he exists,

Less good when
They obey and acclaim him,
Worse when
They fear and despise him.

Fail to honor people
And they fail to honor you.

But of a good leader,
When his work is done,
His aim fulfilled,
they will all say,
'We did this ourselves.’

Lao-Tzu
Chinese philosopher
Wayne D. King

Lessons from Geese

Colors in a Borealis Flyway

Taken from a Speech by Angeles Arrien and based on the works of Milton Olson

Fact 1
As each goose flaps its wings it creates an “uplift” for the birds that follow, By flying in a v formation, the entire flock adds 72 percent greater flying range than if a bird flew alone. LESSON : People who share a common direction and a sense of community can get where they are going quicker and easier because they are traveling on the thrust of one another.

Fact 2

Goose Over Stinson Lake

When a goose falls out of formation, it suddenly feels the drag and resistance of flying alone. It quickly moves back into the formation to take advantage of the lifting power of the bird immediately in front of it. LESSON: If we have as much sense as a goose we stay in formation with those headed where we want to go.

Fact 3
When the lead goose tires, it rotates back into the formation and another goose flies the point position. LESSON: It pays to take turns doing the hard tasks and sharing leadership. As with geese, people are interdependent on each other’s skills, capabilities and unique arrangements of gifts,, talents and resources.

Fact 4
The geese flying in formation honk to encourage those up front to keep going. LESSON: We need to make sure our honking is encouraging. In groups where there is encouragement, the production is much greater.

Fact 5
When a goose gets sick, wounded or shot down, two geese drop out of formation and follow it down to help and protect it. They stay with the wounded goose until it is able to fly or dies. Then they launch out with another formation or catch up with their flock. LESSON: If we have as much sense as geese we will stand by one another in difficult times as well as when we are strong.

Painted Sky Over Jericho Lake

Adopt an Image and Raise Money for Your Non Profit or Small Business

Alton Washday Expressions

Alton Washday Expressions

Produced by special request in an affordable limited edition of 100 signed and numbered originals for the good folks at the Rumney Village Store - that would be George & Sheila - a beautiful 8" x 20" signed image with a certificate of authenticity. You can purchase this original art for just $95.00 at the Rumney Village Store on Main Street in Rumney, New Hampshire. If it's too far to travel and you'd still like an original signed print, you can order it right here and we'll see to it that the Rumney Village Store gets credited - but you can save the cost of shipping by stopping by RVS and buying it directly and maybe purchasing one of their great deli offerings! or grab a copy of Sacred Trust 😉 . http://bit.ly/AltonEXP

As a way to support local businesses and nonprofits I have created this Adopt-an-Image program. If you or your nonprofit have an interest in adopting your favorite image its easy, just click here: http://bit.ly/AdoptImage