Staring Down the Barrel of a Trade War

Regular readers of my policy commentary here or on my Facebook page (https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1007197659) will recognize that I believe that both Bernie and Donald Trump are wrong about trade agreements and the path we are currently on is alarmingly similar to the path that led to the Great Depression beginning with the Smoot Hawley act that created tariffs on goods from other countries and set off a trade war between the US and many countries with whom we did business.

This is not to say that we can't do a whole lot better at crafting trade agreements, but to take the simplistic approach of blaming the loss of jobs on trade agreements - ignoring for example the much more powerful effects of technology causing the replacement of human labor with robots and software.

We would be far better served by an effort to better understand the forces at work in our economy and the world economy and working to develop MORE trade agreements that reflect those changes. 

We are all well aware that change is the rule in our world and the speed with which change occurs increases dramatically with each passing year. Why would we want to apply 1920s ideas to the problems of the 21st Century? They were disastrous then and only likely to be more disastrous today.

Right now it appears that the US is deeply divided along classic lines of liberal vs conservative ideology but If that is the case (and I contend that it is NOT the case) this is merely the early rumblings of a divide that is built around an entirely new paradigm.

The new ideological divide will not be liberal vs. conservative; it will be centralization vs decentralization. I believe that we are watching the early quakes in the final stages of the meltdown of BOTH Classic Capitalism and Communism and the birth of a new paradigm where successful nations lead the way toward economies built around principles that embrace the power of blending economics principles and social collaboration to craft "new" definitions of work and what constitutes a meaningful life.

I am not a utopian. I don't suggest that these changes will be simple, easy or painless. Like any other social and economic revolution they will be painful, jarring and confusing at best.

A trade war that ignores the lead for us to lift all boats in this new world would be the worst thing we could do.

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A Suggestion for Covert Sanctions Against Russia

The actions by the OBama administration including the expulsion of individuals directly involved in the hacks that were intended to influence the outcome of the US Elections are a good start and effectively "Name and shame" some of the primary culprits, including Putin directly.

In addition to the public sanctions the President has said that some covert actions will be taken as well. My suggestion is that among those sanctions we include a hack of emails of individuals involved in the doping scandal of Russian Olympic athletes. Particularly if we can make public evidence that the Russian Government was actively involved in the doping campaign and provide the evidence needed to make the case for a long-term suspension of all or most of the Russian Olympic team, other high level athletes and their coaches.

There are few things more important to the Russian psyche than their International athletic prowess. To have the extent of the government complicity and that of their nationally acclaimed athletic coaches and athletes revealed would give the International Olympic Committee the evidence needed to sanction Russia much more severely than the virtual slap on the wrist that they have gotten to date.

I'm not an expert on hacking but I am betting that this would be a relatively easy hack and the odds that the leadership within the secret cabal that orchestrated the doping of athletes would be arrogant enough to have openly communicated among themselves by email.

-wdk