Showing posts with label UBI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UBI. Show all posts

Thursday, May 14, 2020

Roaring Back Economically - Now is the Time for a Basic Income and National Healthcare

American Spirit

The View From Rattlesnake Ridge
Ruminations from an Unabashed Optimist, an Environmental Patriot and a Radical Centrist


Roaring Back Economically
Now is the Time for a Basic Income and National Healthcare


In this age of Covid-19, I am unable to experience the day to day joys of sharing time with neighbors and measuring their sentiments, hearing their stories, and drawing on them for life lessons. There will come a time, again, when we will be able to do this, and again I will return to my perambulations among neighbors in search of their stories and sensibilities for this column.

For now, my walks and rambles are solitary. I am alone with only my thoughts, the sounds of the brook, the wind, the pileated woodpeckers hammering at the trees, the red squirrels chattering at me. Some days my thoughts are small and parochial. Some days they range like a mountain lion, covering ground like a river tracing its tributaries high into the rocky precipices.

Lately, most of those thoughts have focused on the tragedy confronting our beloved American family.  Today, my mind wandered to my other family, a proud part of the American family but also distinctive in its own way.

My Grandfather’s people, and by birthright mine, the Haudenausanee - also known as the Iroquois - in the early years of the republic would range well down into the Rattlesnake Ridge area from time to time, sometimes in search of game and other times empire. For 500 years before the birth of the United States, the Iroquois people nurtured and sustained the first and only democratic republican form of government. Long before the birth of Jefferson and Adams, even before John Locke from whom Adams and Jefferson drew inspiration, the Iroquois were gathering to make decisions collectively and democratically. There is evidence that Ben Franklin looked to the Iroquois confederacy as he helped craft the US Constitution.

Esheheman's Breath

One of the most striking aspects of the Iroquois Confederacy’s democratic deliberations is that they were required to consider the effect of their actions, not just in terms of their immediate needs, but in light of the effect on the next 7 generations before arriving at a decision. So today I am doing just that in my rambling ruminations.

This pandemic has laid bare many of the weaknesses in our democracy and our economy. A significant portion of the economic tragedy has its roots in an economy that for 50 years - since the early 1970s - has slowly drained wealth from the middle class, the working class and the poor. Only a year ago a report from the Federal Reserve found that 40% of Americans would be unable to cover a $400 emergency with cash, savings, or a credit card. This growing disparity of wealth had already begun to blossom into a crisis before we were struck with the Covid-19 crisis affecting every aspect of American lives.

The existential crisis of Climate Change has faded from the light of public discourse, eclipsed by an even more immediate crisis. But, like the Covid-19 Pandemic, Climate Change is a science-based crisis and if there is one thing that we have all learned - with the possible exception of the Trump administration - science-based challenges don’t respond to lies, bullying, and spin. Eventually, they will bite you.

The marginalization of communities of color has come into full public view as the numbers of cases and deaths among black, brown, and Indian communities dramatically outpace even the high numbers among the general population.

These and other challenges are mixed in the rich stew of partisanship and culture wars, cooked up by Newt Gingrich in 1994 and today boiling vigorously as Donald Trump turns up the heat in anticipation of the coming election. One need only count the number of times the President uses the words “I” and “me” when he addresses the nation or the media, and how little he uses the word “we”. His lack of empathy for the 80,000 plus Americans who have lost their lives is shocking and disheartening, but not surprising.



The good news is that American’s have come together as we always do in a real crisis. There are signs that the efforts of a small vocal minority supported by the President are causing even that rare unity to fray but polling shows that most people have taken their lives and their safety into their own (well-washed) hands and have stopped listening to the President and turned their attention to those who will tell them the truth.

Even Congress has demonstrated a willingness to push partisanship aside in the best interests of the American people. Let’s hope they continue to do so because the challenges ahead are going to require that they continue to step up and that the sacred cows of both the Republicans and the Democrats will be put to the test and found wanting.

This Pandemic raging around us has created the perfect storm for many Americans - a catastrophic convergence of forces over which we have almost no control.

Since the beginning of this pandemic, it is estimated that 27 million Americans have already lost their health care insurance and that number may rise to 45 million before the worst is over. Despite this, the Trump administration refuses to reopen enrollment in the ACA, otherwise referred to as “Obama Care”. Congress should immediately reopen the ACA enrollment. Furthermore, they should do something they have stopped doing for a long time - taking a page from the Iroquois Confederacy and looking for solutions that consider the next 7 generations of Americans. Americans deserve a national healthcare plan that covers every single American.

Over the course of the last few years I have made the case for an American Dividend, more commonly referred to as a Universal Basic Income based on the presumption that Americans have contributed to the wealth of the nation through their sacrifices, their labor, and their taxes - but have never been included as shareholders in the economic miracle. I won’t reiterate all of the arguments for a UBI here, but you can read previous columns about it and there are a lot of people of all political persuasions who are now talking about it and writing about it. What I will do is try - in a few paragraphs - to make the case for doing it NOW - even as a temporary measure - as the most effective way to drive our economy forward and find our way out of this pandemic while respecting and protecting one another.

As impatience grows for restarting our economy and for resuming some semblance of normalcy in our day-to-day lives we will continue to experience the push and pull between economic needs and health and safety needs. While we must let the science and data drive our decisions in order to minimize the rate of new infections and deaths, we clearly must begin making efforts where possible to reopen the economy and return to life in a new normal. However, the challenge we face is one at the confluence of science, psychology, and economics, presenting a significant challenge and the need for our leaders, and each of us, to exercise judgment. Even as our Governors and policymakers begin this process, carefully laying out rules regarding testing, tracing and isolation, social distancing, and other safety measures, many folks will not be comfortable resuming “normal” life without confidence that we have flattened the curve sufficiently to make venturing out safe. Furthermore, rebounding economically, especially for our small businesses, will be profoundly challenging at 25% or even 50% of their previous capacity. We need to find a way to harness the economic power of both those who are ready to venture out and those who are not. Here’s where a basic income for every American can drive a robust resurgence.

Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos makes $6.54 billion dollars per month. If he dines at the most expensive restaurant in America, “Per Se” Restaurant in New York City, it will cost him $685.00. In his home state of Washington, “the Herbfarm Restaurant”, located on the outskirts of Seattle will cost you a more affordable $285. But Jeff Bezos can only eat ONE dinner.

One month of Jeff Bezos income would cover a $2,000 basic income for three million two hundred seventy thousand Americans, roughly 1% of the entire population; men, women and children; roughly 2% of American households.

So here’s a simple question: What is going to have a greater impact on the US economy: a month of dinners for Jeff Bezos (at $8,550) or 10 million dinners purchased by American families from local grocery stores and restaurants? Which of these is more likely to help save small businesses on Main street?

Now I’m not picking on Jeff Bezos, whom I admire immensely, but last year any one single American paid more in taxes than Amazon, which paid no taxes because of a tax code heavily skewed to the wealthy in our nation.

Businesses don’t create jobs, CONSUMERS create jobs through demand and businesses respond by hiring labor sufficient to meet the demand. It’s simple economics.

Put a basic income of $2,000 per month in the pockets of every American for the remainder of the year and it will cost half of what any of the previous 3 “relief” packages have cost and you can bet that - whether they are sheltering in place or out and about - Americans will drive the economy and support their local businesses. With real disposable income, the free market will determine how that income is used and most of the businesses we know and love in our communities all over America will find a way through this crisis. Furthermore, you will see a flurry of new entrepreneurial activity as Americans find new ways to create jobs and generate income using some of that disposable income to launch startups. In addition to this the President, The Speaker of the House, and the Majority Leader of the Senate, should appoint a blue-ribbon task force to look at ways to fund a basic income permanently.

None of this should be construed to ignore the need for an aggressive, nationally-directed system of testing, tracing, and isolating. If we had a national service requirement, that most Americans - from all parts of the political spectrum - support, we would be able to activate that network of millions of Americans to do the testing and contact tracing. As it stands the use of Americorp and Peace Corps volunteers could be activated immediately to fill much of the need. If we do not aggressively develop such a system quickly, few of us will feel comfortable about emerging into a world where a simple, and desperately needed, embrace can end in tragedy.

Americans of all political persuasions have set aside their differences in this pandemic and we can hear the faint but growing sound of the American song rising from their efforts, as they cheer for our frontline heroes, as they check on elderly neighbors and greet one another walking in the park or on the trail, even in acts as simple as paying for the coffee of the next car in line at the Dunkin Donuts drive-through.

Keep singing. Don’t let tribalism and partisanship derail what could be the great American renaissance after we beat back Covid-19. Dream 7 generations ahead.


Wayne King is an author, artist, activist and recovering politician. A three-term State Senator, he was the 1994 Democratic nominee for Governor and most recently the CEO of MOP Environmental Solutions Inc., a public company in the environmental cleanup space. His art is exhibited nationally in galleries and he has published three books of his images with another, "New Hampshire - a Love Story", on the way. His most recent novel "Sacred Trust" a vicarious, high voltage adventure to stop a private powerline is available on Amazon.com. He lives in Thornton, between Rattlesnake Ridge and the Waterville Range. He proudly flies both the American and Iroquois Flags. His website is: http://bit.ly/WayneDKing
UBI, Basic Income, American Dividend, Roaring back, recovery, Pandemic, Covid-19, truth, testing, healthcare, insurance, national service

Monday, April 30, 2018

The Future of Work: The Gig Economy is Here to Stay.




The Gig economy is the term on the tip of the tongues of commentators and analysts these days. It’s a very broad term that describes both the increasing tendency of employers to hire independent contractors and short term workers rather than add new full time employees, and their accompanying taxes and benefits, to their workforce. It also describes a range of individuals who, by choice or necessity, build an income around work that is self-directed and without both the benefits and the downsides of a traditional job. A gig job may be a sole source of  income or performed in addition to a traditional job that doesn’t generate the income necessary to either the needs or the financial aspirations of the person involved.

The Gig Economy may seem to be a new phenomenon to many, but to folks who live in the shadow of Rattlesnake Ridge it’s been a way of life for a long time. When my friend Micky Lewis, whom you’ve met in this column before, delivers wood to my home in the middle of the winter, between snow plowing gigs, he’s supplementing work as a contractor that comes and goes with the vagaries of the economy and the real estate market among other variables. Now this is the life that Micky has chosen, but for many such work comes as a necessity. The trade off that many of us made to live here is that well paying jobs tend to be less available here.

So now the phenomenon has spread throughout the economy and we have a name for it, possibly named from the well known phrase “I’ve got a side gig doing . . .you finish the sentence”.  

The Gig Economy is not well defined. In fact, to date, no formal definition has been established even for the terms “Gig Economy” or “Gig Worker”. Furthermore, statistical information that really measures the number of people engaged in the gig economy is nowhere near the level of sophistication as those who are employed in the full time labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has stubbornly clung to measuring three things: “Farm employment, non-farm employment and employers, there just aren’t that many gradations for job categories beyond that except by industry” according to the most comprehensive research on gig jobs I have found at Nation1099.com (see below).  

There are some understandable reasons for this. After all we are trying to measure not only those who make their entire living putting together gigs, both online and offline, as well as the people who have a job but supplement it with gig jobs; and those who label themselves consultants. In an effort to attempt to get a handle on this part of our economy the GAO issued a report in 2014 and could not decide whether the portion of workers that BLS defined as “Contingent Workers” represented 5% or 40% of the workforce.  It is estimated that as much as 90% of the jobs added since 2015, encompassing all three of these, have been gig jobs. 47% of Millenials, who make up the largest portion of the workforce, according to surveys are engaged in some level of freelance work.

A few other instructive bits of data are worth considering:

  1. According to Forbes Magazine, since 2000, 1099s have gone up 22%, while the traditional W-2 forms have stagnated.
  2. Some researchers project that half of the working U.S. population will move into the gig economy within the next five years.


Among the trends nationally that will have the greatest impact on the number of people in the Gig economy is the alignment of small business growth and Gig Economy growth. These days when most people think of the Gig Economy they think of big companies like Uber, Lyft, AirBNB, etc. but one of the fastest growing area of Gig Job growth is new and expanding small businesses who find it easier and more affordable to hire freelance workers than to add individuals to their payroll. This is partly due to costs but it is also caused by a new trend in business with jobs being broken down into component parts with the work divided between technological solutions (robots, software, etc.) and freelance workers for specific tasks that cannot yet be solved employing technological solutions.   

All of the trend lines indicate that the Gig Economy is here to stay. It will bring massive change, massive opportunity and massive disruption to the economy and our lives, making it both exciting and dangerous, particularly when combined with another trend in business, exchanging technology for labor. Most economists, futurists and other prognosticators predict that by 2020 almost half of the entire labor force in the US will be employed within the Gig Economy. That’s the same year, by the way that many say we will begin to see massive disruption in the largest source of individual employment, drivers as driverless trucks and automobiles begin the process of what very well may become a driverless society by 2050.

Now, the good news and the bad news. First, most people who are employed in some way in the gig economy indicate a high degree of satisfaction. Varying polls show a satisfaction rate of as much as 75%. They enjoy the flexibility and the freedom that it provides for them.

The bad news is that almost all of the people employed in the Gig Economy are within the middle class strata of society. Very few of the working class and poor, whom I have referred to as the Precariat, are currently engaged in this sector of the economy. Where there is massive income disparity between the wealthy and everyone else already, this threatens to make the problem even worse.

Furthermore most jobs within the Gig Economy have no benefits and therefore fall outside of the social safety net that we have constructed since the Great Depression.

Meanwhile, Trump Tweets, the Republicans hide and the Democrats are gleefully looking to 2018 without a clue of what they will do - other than to hold impeachment hearings -  if they take over the control of the House and/or the Senate. Granted, the Democrats have no power within the government but they could be setting an example by telling us what they would do if they did. It may be that their relationship with labor - which in fairness was largely responsible for building the middle class in this country - has paralyzed them. Labor has already been through a dramatic decline in America and they are fighting to maintain their clout. The Gig economy represents an existential crisis for them.  Unless the labor movement comes up with some new approaches to organizing, their days are numbered.

Here’s the problem in a nutshell, while we have moved to Workforce 2.0 in the global economy our governance is still stuck in Democracy 1.0 and Capitalism 1.0 and that is a real and growing problem. If I were advising an insurgent Republican candidate or an Independent Candidate for President I’d tell him or her to adopt a radical centrist agenda that spoke to the greatest threats to American economic stability and democracy. Go BIG or Go Home as they say.  It would take a whole lot of guts and it would be a high risk strategy. It might also be the first real step toward righting the ship of state and saving both capitalism and democracy.


Links:
http://nation1099.com/gig-economy-data-freelancer-study
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregoryferenstein/2015/12/12/the-gig-economy-appears-to-be-growing-heres-why/
https://smallbiztrends.com/2016/07/20-surprising-stats-freelance-economy.html



About Wayne D. King: Wayne King is an author, artist, activist and recovering politician. A three term State Senator, he was the 1994 Democratic nominee for Governor and most recently the CEO of MOP Environmental Solutions Inc., a public company in the environmental cleanup space.  His art is exhibited nationally in galleries and he has published three books of his images. His most recent novel "Sacred Trust" a vicarious, high voltage adventure to stop a private powerline, has been published on Amazon.com http://bit.ly/STPaper. He lives in Rumney at the base of Rattlesnake Ridge and proudly flies both the American and Iroquois Flags. His website is: http://bit.ly/WayneDKing

Friday, April 27, 2018

The Value of Native American Indian Investment in America

In the last few months I have been thinking a lot about the values and obligations that we Americans share with one another.

In December I wrote a column that asked the question of whether GDP (also called GNP or Gross National Product) was the best way to measure American success and happiness. (InDepthNH.org - http://bit.ly/2I38p1q );

In February, I wrote a column titled "Restoring the American Voice" (InDepthNH.org http://bit.ly/2Kfuvyn) advocating the need for us all to moderate our differences by remembering and respecting those values that we all share. . . Singing the American Song together as we find our way through the sea of changes ahead.

In my March 3, 2018 column "A National American Social Dividend and a New American Paradigm" (InDepthNH.org http://bit.ly/2r1HYRB ) I suggested that we recognize an American Social Dividend. Essentially making the case that beyond the inheritance of private wealth that we have long recognized in America, that there should be a recognition of an inheritance of public wealth. A recognition of those contributions made over the centuries to the nation's wealth by those who are not in the 1%., including both the collective personal investments made (willingly or unwillingly) and the collective investments created by laws and institutions that have provided the legal and economic framework for a successful economy and a robust democracy. Those investments have played a role in the long term success of the American economy and our way of life that is every bit as important as the Plutocrat, who is able to pass along to his or her children the wealth generated during their lifetime. In fact, it could be argued that, without the robust institutions of Democracy, Capitalism - which is more of an "Operating System" than it is an ideology - could not have produced the rewards it has produced for those Plutocrats.

Now don't get me wrong. . . I am a "Capitalist" and there is nothing , in my opinion wrong with being wealthy; frankly, I wish I were. The sooner we stop denigrating people for being wealthy, or poor, the faster we will rediscover our American Voice. But the myth of the "self-made man" is just that, a myth. Behind every self-made man is an education financed by taxpayers, or a patent protected by a law and perhaps financed through a government research grant; a government infrastructure and a physical infrastructure, paid for by taxpayers at every level; or, a government guaranteed loan for a business . . . do I need to go on?

In the Column I cite just some of the ways in which, over more than two centuries, we have padded the GNP at the expense of one group or another concluding, finally that "in some way or another we are all aggrieved, we are all due reparations; we are mutually responsible for our successes and our failures and mutually entitled to an American Social Dividend paid for with the blood, sweat and tears of every American. . ."

Naturally in thinking about all this I began to wonder if there were not a way to show that both the political and economic success of our nation is grounded in the contributions and sacrifices of all Americans, even those who have been marginalized historically.

So I began to construct a series of questions that I wanted to try answering to help me better explain all this and to defend the proposition.


Our Time Comes


Here is the first question I asked myself (hey give me a break I'm Iroquois!) How does the value of the land taken from Native American people in the conquest of the US relate to GNP today?

As far as I know, no one has done extensive academic research on this topic and for good reason. It would be almost impossible - without Big Data and a powerful computer - to figure out, given differing land values and differing time tables, to say nothing of the fact that knowing when a land transaction was actually voluntary (not very often). On the other hand there is enough data out there to do a "back of the envelope" calculation generally, so here goes:

Using very rough estimates and not including the land taken from Native American people prior to 1776 and also not including improvements on the land such as the towns established in Georgia and the Carolinas by tribes like the Cherokee. It is generally understood that since 1776 Native Americans have been moved from lands totaling 1.5 Billion acres to a small set of reservations dotted around the country. If you simply use the general value of an acre of land prior to the Gold Rush ($1.25) the 1.5 Billion acres had a rough value back then of 1.9 Billion dollars. Using another rough calculation, real dollar values, we can estimate that $1.00 in the early 1800s is roughly (very roughly as we have no data related to inflation before 1913) equivalent to about $49.00 today. Since we know that no land in California today sells for $49.00 per acre (Average 2012 California farm real estate values set an all-time record - $7200 per acre) we can be sure that this is a conservative number, the value of the theft of native lands is, at a minimum $87 Billion dollars. If we use the $7,200/acre value, the value - still conservative - is 10.1 Trillion dollars. A glance at an estimate of the total value of US land is $14.48 Trillion dollars. The numbers show a surprising correlation. While about 80% of the lands of America were taken from native people after 1776, the value of that land today represents 70% of the total value of "unimproved" real estate (land only) in the US.

OK but the way we measure the wealth of our nation is not by real estate value, its by GDP. So how do we figure out what portion of the nation's wealth has been generated from lands taken from Native American people?

Well, let's try this: 18% of GDP is generated by real estate activity. 70% of 18% is 12.6%. GDP in 2016 was 18.57 Trillion. 12.6% of 18.57T is 2.32 Trillion dollars or 12.5% of 2016 US GDP generated from the 1.5 Billion acres of land taken from Native Americans since 1776.

While this is a seat of the pants calculation - I suspect the actual numbers would be higher - and certainly subject to legitimate criticism as there are many variables in the cost and value of land across the USA, the point made is the same. A large portion of national wealth has grown from the lands that we expropriated from Native American Indians.

Native people have not sought reparations. The loss of culture and marginalization for them has been far more important and can never be remunerated. It would be a step in the right direction to at least recognize that a substantial portion of our bounty today can be attributed to the land their ancestors called home.



About Wayne D. King: Wayne King is an author, artist, activist and recovering politician. A three term State Senator, he was the 1994 Democratic nominee for Governor and most recently the CEO of MOP Environmental Solutions Inc., a public company in the environmental cleanup space.  His art is exhibited nationally in galleries and he has published three books of his images. His most recent novel "Sacred Trust" a vicarious, high voltage adventure to stop a private powerline, has been published on Amazon.com http://bit.ly/STPaper. He lives in Rumney at the base of Rattlesnake Ridge and proudly flies both the American and Iroquois Flags. His website is: http://bit.ly/WayneDKing
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If you know of better sources for the information on the back of my "envelope" I'd love to find out about them so that I can update this information. If you disagree with my points, I'd like to hear you, especially if you have a well thought out response and not just a snarky or snide remark. Lets have an honest dialog and we'll all benefit from it. wdk